中银证券：中银晨会聚焦-20241014

Core Insights - The report highlights a narrowing of the current account surplus in the first half of the year, primarily due to a deficit in service trade, while the goods trade surplus saw a slight increase [2] - The report emphasizes the importance of expanding the use of debt funds as a key highlight from the recent press conference by the Ministry of Finance, indicating a significant scale of debt replacement measures is anticipated [3][4] - The U.S. CPI data for September shows a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, with core CPI rising to 3.3%, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [5][6] Economic Overview - The current account surplus has decreased year-on-year, with service trade deficits being the main contributor, while the goods trade surplus has slightly increased [2] - There has been an improvement in net inflows of foreign investment, with a shift towards net increases in domestic RMB bonds held by foreign investors [2] - The Ministry of Finance plans to expand the scope of special government bonds to support local government financing and improve the structure of the domestic real estate market [3][4] U.S. Economic Indicators - The U.S. CPI for September reported a year-on-year increase of 2.4% and a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, with core CPI at 3.3% [5] - Food prices increased by 0.4% month-on-month, while energy prices decreased by 1.9%, indicating mixed inflationary pressures [5] - The core services inflation is being dragged down by housing costs, with a notable decline in rent and owners' equivalent rent [5][6]