大行补充资本点评：保守情形下的未雨绸缪

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the banking industry but discusses the capital replenishment measures for large state-owned commercial banks, indicating a cautious approach to maintaining capital adequacy [2][3]. Core Insights - The issuance of special treasury bonds is aimed at supporting the replenishment of Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) capital for large state-owned commercial banks, enhancing their risk resilience and credit issuance capacity to better serve the real economy [11]. - As of Q2 2024, the CET1 ratios of the six major banks are as follows: China Construction Bank 14.01%, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China 13.84%, Bank of China 12.03%, Agricultural Bank of China 11.13%, Bank of Communications 10.30%, and Postal Savings Bank of China 9.28% [3][12]. - The current CET1 ratios of ICBC and CCB are deemed sufficient to support potential growth, with the capital replenishment viewed as a precautionary measure [3][12]. - If profit growth is zero over the next three years and risk-weighted assets grow by 15%, the CET1 ratio could drop to around 8% in three years, highlighting the importance of maintaining adequate capital levels [3][12]. - The report notes a potential dilution effect on existing shareholders due to the capital injection, but a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 1 would reflect shareholder recognition of the banks' value [3][12]. Summary by Sections Event - On October 12, 2024, it was announced that special treasury bonds would be issued to support the replenishment of CET1 capital for large state-owned commercial banks [11]. Commentary - The report emphasizes the need for precautionary measures in a conservative scenario, with current CET1 ratios indicating a stable position for the major banks [3][12]. - The commentary also discusses the implications of capital replenishment on shareholder value and the banks' operational stability [3][12].