石油化工行业周报：涤纶长丝基本面有所改善，“银十”仍值得期待

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the petrochemical industry, particularly highlighting the recovery in the polyester filament market and the expectations for the "Silver Ten" season [4][6]. Core Insights - The fundamentals of polyester filament have improved since late September, driven by cooler weather, stabilized oil prices, and favorable domestic macro policies, leading to a recovery in downstream demand [4][6]. - The report anticipates a continued recovery in polyester filament profitability in the fourth quarter, supported by both domestic and external demand improvements [14][15]. - The upstream sector is experiencing rising oil prices, with Brent crude oil futures closing at $79.04 per barrel, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 1.27% [19][21]. - The refining sector shows an increase in overseas refined oil crack spreads, while olefin spreads have decreased [40][42]. Summary by Sections Polyester Filament Market - Since late September, the polyester filament market has shown signs of recovery, with downstream operating rates reaching annual highs due to increased demand for autumn and winter fabrics [8][11]. - Inventory levels across the industry have declined, with polyester filament stocks at their lowest since the Spring Festival [11][14]. - The report expects continued improvement in profitability for polyester filament in Q4, with a favorable supply-demand balance anticipated [14][15]. Upstream Sector - As of October 11, Brent crude oil futures closed at $79.04 per barrel, with a week-on-week increase of 1.27% [19][21]. - U.S. commercial crude oil inventories increased by 5.81 million barrels, while gasoline and distillate inventories decreased [21][28]. - The report notes a slight increase in the number of active drilling rigs in the U.S., indicating a potential uptick in oil production [28][30]. Refining Sector - The report highlights an increase in the Singapore refining product crack spread to $8.73 per barrel, indicating improved refining margins [42][44]. - The price of PTA has risen, with the average spot price in East China reaching 5088.33 RMB per ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 5.40% [67][69]. - The report suggests that refining profitability is expected to gradually improve as economic recovery continues [15][40]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-quality refining companies such as Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, and Dongfang Shenghong, as well as polyester filament companies like Tongkun Co., Ltd. [15][15]. - It also highlights the potential for expansion in ethane-to-ethylene projects in China, recommending Satellite Chemical as a key player [15][15].