证券行业9M24业绩前瞻：预计板块3Q24E业绩同比双位数增长，环比小幅改善

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the securities industry, expecting a double-digit year-on-year growth in performance for Q3 2024 [3]. Core Insights - The securities sector is projected to see a continued narrowing of revenue and net profit declines in the first nine months of 2024, with a forecasted revenue decline of 5% year-on-year and a net profit increase of 9% year-on-year [3]. - Q3 2024 is expected to show a revenue increase of 15% year-on-year and a net profit increase of 28% year-on-year, indicating a trend of sequential growth [3][4]. - Key companies such as Huatai Securities and China Galaxy are expected to report significant profit increases, while others like CITIC Securities and Guotai Junan are projected to see declines [3][10]. Summary by Sections Investment Business - The report highlights a strong performance in the equity market driven by positive signals from the National Financial Committee, with a notable increase in self-operated business revenue expected in Q3 2024 [4]. - The bond market is also showing slight increases, with the CSI All Bond Index rising by 0.52% year-on-year [4]. Brokerage and Margin Financing - Trading activity has rebounded, with average daily trading volume in Q3 2024 reaching 677.6 billion yuan, although this is still down 15% year-on-year [4][7]. - The report notes a recovery in the issuance of equity funds, with 51.8 billion units issued in Q3 2024, a 23% increase year-on-year [4]. Asset Management - The asset management business is expected to maintain resilience, with public fund sizes growing, particularly in bond funds, which saw a 26% year-on-year increase [5][7]. - The report anticipates a slight increase in asset management revenue of 0.4% year-on-year for the first nine months of 2024 [5]. Investment Banking - The investment banking sector is expected to see a marginal improvement in IPO activities, with Q3 2024 IPO volume at 15.3 billion yuan, down 86% year-on-year but up 94% quarter-on-quarter [6][7]. - Bond underwriting remains a strong support for the business, with a total underwriting volume of 3.9 trillion yuan in Q3 2024, reflecting a 3% year-on-year increase [6]. Investment Analysis Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading institutions like CITIC Securities and China Galaxy that are expected to benefit from capital market reforms and improved risk control indicators [5]. - It also highlights the potential of merger and acquisition-focused firms such as Guotai Junan and Haitong Securities, as well as undervalued firms like Huatai Securities that may exceed performance expectations [5].