美国9月核心环比通胀率再超预期，11月降息幅度或锁定在25个基点

Inflation Data - The core CPI inflation rate in the US for September rose to 0.31%, exceeding market expectations of 0.2%[1] - Overall CPI growth remained stable at 0.18%, while year-on-year CPI decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 2.4% due to a high base effect[1] - The core CPI year-on-year unexpectedly increased by 0.1 percentage points to 3.3%[1] Key Drivers of Inflation - The rise in core CPI was primarily driven by improvements in core goods CPI and a significant increase in super core services CPI, which rose to 0.55% in September from 0.24% in August[1] - Clothing prices contributed to the core goods CPI turning positive at 0.17% in September, up from -0.17% in August[1] - Transportation goods CPI also turned positive at 0.25%, aided by improvements in used car prices[1] Housing and Rental Trends - Housing prices saw a significant drop, with the month-on-month growth rate falling by 0.3 percentage points to 0.22%[1] - The inflation rate for lodging (mainly hotels) plummeted to -1.93% in September from 1.75% in August[1] - Owner's equivalent rent inflation rate decreased by 0.17 percentage points to 0.33% in September[1] Labor Market Insights - Non-farm payrolls in September increased by 254,000, significantly above the market expectation of 150,000[1] - The unemployment rate fell by 0.1 percentage points to 4.1%[1] - Average hourly earnings showed a slight acceleration in year-on-year growth, despite a slowdown in month-on-month growth[1] Future Monetary Policy Outlook - The expected interest rate cut in November is likely to be limited to 25 basis points, down from a previous forecast of 50 basis points[2] - The Federal Reserve's focus has shifted from inflation to employment data, with recent data indicating a better-than-expected labor market[2] - The overall economic downtrend is expected to continue, with the possibility of a more pronounced economic downturn if upcoming data does not exceed expectations[2]