国防军工行业2024年三季报业绩前瞻：确收节奏影响业绩短期承压，基本面确定向上行业拐点将至

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the defense and military industry, indicating an expected upward trend in the fundamentals of the sector [3]. Core Insights - The industry is experiencing a recovery in order volumes across the supply chain, with a projected total revenue of approximately 71.2 billion yuan for 43 key companies in Q3 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9.1%. However, the total revenue for Q1-Q3 2024 is expected to decline by 7.0% year-on-year [3][4]. - The report highlights that the recovery in the upstream electronic components and high-end materials sectors is expected to see year-on-year growth of 10.6% and 13.2% respectively in Q3 2024, despite a decline in the first three quarters of the year [3][4]. - The midstream subsystem is projected to see a 2.5% decrease in Q3 2024, while the midstream structural components are expected to grow by 22.4% in the same period [4]. - The downstream main engine manufacturers are anticipated to achieve a 9.2% increase in Q3 2024, with a 4.9% growth expected for the first three quarters [4]. Summary by Sections Upstream - The upstream electronic components and high-end materials sectors are expected to recover, with significant contracts announced for stealth materials and metamaterials [3][4]. - The total revenue for the upstream sector is projected to be 40.99 billion yuan in Q3 2024, with a year-on-year decline of 7.2% [5]. Midstream - The midstream subsystem is expected to see a revenue decrease of 2.5% in Q3 2024, while structural components are projected to grow by 22.4% [4]. - The total revenue for the midstream sector is projected to be 50.17 billion yuan in Q3 2024, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 22.9% [5]. Downstream - The downstream main engine manufacturers are expected to see a revenue increase of 9.2% in Q3 2024, with a total revenue of 8.04 billion yuan for the quarter [4]. - The total revenue for the downstream sector is projected to be 3,520.7 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 14.0% [9]. Investment Themes - The report identifies two main investment themes: high-end combat capabilities and new quality combat capabilities, focusing on stable growth in main engine manufacturers and high-end materials [3][4]. - Recommended stocks include a mix of high-end combat capabilities and new quality combat capabilities, such as 中航沈飞 (AVIC Shenyang Aircraft Corporation) and 航天电子 (Aerospace Electronics) [3][4].