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红枣周报-宏观情绪主导 盘面宽幅震荡
Hua Rong Rong Da Qi Huo·2024-10-14 04:33

Market Overview - The main red date futures contract closed at 9600 CNY/ton, down 565 CNY/ton from the previous week, with a trading volume of 71,031 contracts, a decrease of 4,247 contracts[5] - The overall inventory of red dates is lower compared to previous years, indicating a continuous destocking trend[2] - The new season dates are entering the drying phase, benefiting from favorable weather conditions[2] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The arrival of red dates in the Cangzhou market is stable at around 30 trucks, but has slowed compared to the pre-Mid-Autumn Festival peak[3] - The expected yield in mainstream date orchards in Aksu and Alar regions is projected to reach 800-900 kg per mu[3] - Current purchasing prices from farmers are lower than last year, leading to a negotiation process between farmers and merchants[3] Price Trends and Technical Analysis - The fruit index has slightly declined, reflecting a weakening macro sentiment, which has impacted the red date market[3] - The fruit price index is reported at 121.24, maintaining stability, while the gray date index has decreased[7] - The market is advised to observe the pressure at the 10,000 CNY/ton level for the 2501 contract[6] Strategic Recommendations - Investment clients should adopt a range-bound trading strategy, while downstream merchants are encouraged to purchase as needed[6] - Upstream clients should focus on raw material procurement and consider hedging based on acquisition costs[3] Risk Factors - Investors should pay attention to potential purchasing policies from production areas, which could significantly influence the market[6]