CPI、PPI点评报告：有效需求不足，通胀率继续下行

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In September 2024, the CPI year-on-year growth was 0.4%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from August[3] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, grew by 0.1%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month[3] - Seasonal factors, such as the start of school and the Mid-Autumn Festival, led to an increase in demand for fruits and vegetables, pushing some food prices up[3] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The PPI fell by 2.8% year-on-year in September 2024, with the decline expanding by 1.0 percentage points compared to the previous month[3] - The drop in PPI was attributed to lower international commodity prices and a high base effect from the previous year[3] - Production material prices saw a year-on-year decline of 3.3%, with the mining and raw materials sectors experiencing significant drops of 1.3 and 3.4 percentage points, respectively[19] Group 3: Market Outlook - Effective demand remains insufficient, which is a fundamental reason for the low CPI growth rate[3] - The report anticipates that CPI growth will rise in 2024 due to policies aimed at stabilizing growth and promoting consumption[22] - PPI is expected to improve in 2024, with a projected year-on-year growth of approximately -2.1%[22]