财政政策或持续发力，煤价中枢高位逻辑或进一步强化

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the coal industry, recommending a focus on coking coal opportunities and stable thermal coal sectors [4][5]. Core Insights - The Ministry of Finance is set to introduce new policies aimed at boosting coal demand, which includes measures to stabilize growth and mitigate risks [5]. - Post-holiday, coal prices at Qinhuangdao port slightly decreased to RMB 852/ton, reflecting a 1.7% decline from pre-holiday levels, while daily coal consumption in 25 provinces increased by 4.7% year-on-year [3][5]. - The report anticipates that despite short-term fluctuations, coal prices are likely to remain high due to improving economic expectations and recovering non-electric demand [3][5]. Summary by Sections Fiscal Policy Impact - The Ministry of Finance plans to implement targeted policies to stabilize growth, including resolving local government debt and supporting key groups [5]. - Major banks are adjusting personal mortgage rates, which may further stimulate coal demand [5]. Coal Price Trends - As of October 11, coal prices at Qinhuangdao port were RMB 852/ton, down 1.7% from the previous period, with a year-on-year decrease of 17.1% [3][5]. - Daily coal consumption in 25 provinces averaged 5.16 million tons, showing a year-on-year increase of 4.7% [3][5]. Coking Coal Market - Coking coal prices have seen two rounds of increases post-holiday, with a cumulative rise of RMB 250/ton, indicating strong demand supported by macroeconomic policies [3][5]. - The operating rate of coking plants is at 73.1%, with daily iron production at 2.33 million tons, suggesting robust demand for coking coal [3][5]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on coking coal opportunities, highlighting companies such as Huaibei Mining Holdings and Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining [4][5]. - It also emphasizes the stability of the thermal coal sector, recommending companies like China Coal Energy and China Shenhua Energy [4][5].