石油石化行业专题研究：财政发力促大化工稳健前行

Investment Rating - Investment recommendation: Outperform the market (maintained) [7] Core Viewpoints - Recent fiscal policies are expected to stimulate demand in the large chemical industry, leading to a recovery in industry valuation and fundamentals [11][34] - The chemical industry's demand is closely linked to the real estate and consumer sectors, with recent policies likely to improve the current demand slump [11][34] - The petrochemical sector is anticipated to see a rebound in profitability and valuation as fiscal policies are implemented [34] Summary by Sections 1. Chemical Demand Affected by Fiscal Policies - Historical fiscal expansion policies have positively impacted chemical demand through both upstream and downstream channels [14] - Upstream transmission stimulates demand for chemical raw materials related to real estate and infrastructure, while downstream transmission boosts demand for consumer-related chemicals [14] 2. Fiscal Policies Expected to Further Boost Chemical Demand 2.1 Basic Chemicals: Demand Support Awaiting Policy Action - CPI and PPI are still at low levels, with the chemical industry facing weak demand from real estate and other sectors [18][20] - The basic chemical sector's capital expenditure growth has turned negative, indicating reduced expansion intentions among companies [25][29] 2.2 Petrochemicals: Policy Implementation Expected to Boost Profitability and Valuation Recovery - The petrochemical sector's revenue for 2023 decreased by 2.40%, while the first half of 2024 showed a revenue increase of 2.54% and a net profit increase of 11.07% [34] - The sector is expected to benefit from policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market, which will enhance demand for petrochemical products [34] 3. Investment Recommendations: Focus on Cyclical Quality Assets 3.1 Cyclical Quality Assets - Recommended to focus on leading companies such as Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, and Juhua [44] 3.2 Assets Benefiting from Consumer Stimulus - Suggested to pay attention to leading companies in polyester filament and agricultural chemicals, as well as firms in the fertilizer sector [45] 3.3 Real Estate Cycle Assets - Recommended to focus on cyclical products related to real estate, such as MDI, soda ash, and titanium dioxide [46]