财政发力促大化工稳健前行

Investment Rating - Investment recommendation: Outperform the market (maintained) [7] Core Viewpoints - Recent fiscal policies are expected to stimulate demand in the large chemical industry, leading to a recovery in industry valuation and fundamentals [11][34] - The petrochemical sector's profitability and valuation are anticipated to rebound from the bottom as fiscal policies are implemented [34] Summary by Sections 1. Chemical Demand Affected by Fiscal Policies - Historical fiscal expansion policies have positively impacted chemical demand through both upstream and downstream channels [14] - Upstream transmission stimulates demand for chemical raw materials related to real estate and infrastructure, while downstream transmission boosts demand for consumer-related chemicals [14] 2. Fiscal Policies Expected to Further Boost Chemical Demand 2.1 Basic Chemicals: Demand Faces Support, Awaiting Policy Action - CPI and PPI are still at low levels, with basic chemical industry capital expenditure growth turning negative [18][25] - The real estate sector remains weak, but demand from home appliances and automobiles is relatively strong [20] - Economic recovery is expected to improve demand in the basic chemical sector as fiscal policies take effect [29] 2.2 Petrochemicals: Policy Implementation Expected to Boost Profitability and Valuation Recovery - The petrochemical sector's revenue decreased by 2.40% in 2023, but is projected to grow by 2.54% in the first half of 2024 [34] - The sector's net profit is expected to increase by 11.07% in 2024H1, indicating a gradual recovery [34] 3. Investment Recommendations: Focus on Cyclical Quality Assets 3.1 Cyclical Quality Assets - Recommended to focus on leading companies such as Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, and Juhua [44] 3.2 Assets Benefiting from Consumption Boost - Suggested to pay attention to leading companies in polyester filament and agricultural chemicals, as well as firms in the fertilizer sector [45] 3.3 Real Estate Cycle Assets - Recommended to focus on cyclical products related to real estate, such as MDI and soda ash, as well as companies with significant cost advantages [46]