美国9月CPI点评：通胀虽超预期，但仍支持小幅降息

Inflation Overview - The U.S. CPI for September 2024 increased by 2.4% year-on-year, marking a decline for six consecutive months but exceeding the expected 2.3%[1] - Month-on-month, the CPI rose by 0.2%, higher than the anticipated 0.1%[1] - Core CPI rebounded to 3.3% year-on-year, the highest since June, surpassing both expectations and the previous month's 3.2%[1] Price Contributions - Food prices unexpectedly rose by 0.4% month-on-month, contributing nearly 25% to the nominal inflation increase[1] - Gasoline prices fell significantly by 4.1% month-on-month, reflecting a broader decline in energy prices[1] - Used car prices rebounded, positively impacting core goods, while clothing prices also saw a substantial month-on-month increase[1] Housing and Core Inflation - Housing inflation showed a stable decline, with rent and owner's equivalent rent both decreasing to 0.3% month-on-month[2] - Supercore inflation, which excludes food and energy, increased by 0.4% month-on-month, marking the third consecutive month of acceleration[2] - The market is pricing in an 86.3% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in November, up from 77.6% prior to the data release[2] Economic Outlook - Despite nominal and core inflation exceeding market expectations, the overall trend remains consistent with a slowing inflation narrative[2] - The labor market's resilience, as indicated by September's employment data, has led to a revision of expectations for a larger rate cut in November[2] - Future economic data, including Q3 GDP, will be crucial in determining the trajectory of interest rates[2]