莫桑比克生活成本危机：贫困影响和可能的政策应对（英）2024

Industry Overview - The report focuses on the cost-of-living crisis in Mozambique, analyzing its impact on poverty and potential policy responses [1][3] - Mozambique has experienced rising extreme poverty over the past decade, exacerbated by the Ukraine war-induced inflation in 2022 [6] - The country's GDP growth has been driven by extractive industries and natural resources, but with limited poverty reduction benefits [12] Poverty Impact - An estimated 1 million additional Mozambicans fell into extreme poverty in 2022 due to soaring food, energy, and transport inflation [6] - 60% of the new extreme poor are concentrated in urban areas, while rural subsistence farmers showed relatively higher resilience [36] - Nampula Province was hardest hit, with over 300,000 new extreme poor, accounting for nearly a third of the national increase [41] Policy Analysis - A 1 percentage point VAT reduction implemented in December 2022 had limited effectiveness, lifting only 38,000 individuals out of poverty [46] - Essential goods like food and fuel are exempt from VAT, limiting the policy's impact on the poorest households [47] - A targeted cash transfer program could be nearly three times more effective than the VAT reduction, potentially lifting over 106,000 individuals out of extreme poverty [55] Consumption Patterns - In 2021, Mozambican households spent 18.4% of their consumption on food, energy, and transport, making them highly vulnerable to price shocks [28] - Urban households' monthly per capita consumption was nearly three times higher than rural households (MT 4,400 vs MT 1,600) [29] - Rural households rely more on auto-consumption (33% of total consumption) compared to urban households (4.3%) [29] Economic Context - Mozambique's GDP growth declined sharply after the 2016 hidden debt crisis, averaging just above 3% annually until the COVID-19 pandemic [14] - The country's gross government debt stood at 104.5% of GDP in 2022, with external debt servicing amounting to 32.8% of GDP [15] - Mozambique's high import dependence (12% food, 19% fuel) creates supply chain vulnerabilities and inflationary pressures [15]