石油化工2024年三季报业绩前瞻：24Q3油价走低，石化产业链景气预计环比回落，中游炼油与下游涤纶价差有所修复

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the petrochemical industry for Q3 2024, indicating an expectation for the sector to outperform the overall market [3][4]. Core Insights - In Q3 2024, crude oil prices have decreased both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter, with Brent crude averaging $78.7 per barrel, down 7.4% from the previous quarter and 8.4% from the same quarter last year [3][6]. - The report highlights a recovery in the price differentials within the petrochemical value chain, particularly in the midstream refining and downstream polyester sectors, despite an overall decline in industry sentiment due to lower oil prices and economic slowdown [4][3]. - Key companies in the industry are projected to experience varying impacts on their earnings due to fluctuating oil prices and demand dynamics, with some companies expected to see profit declines while others may benefit from improved cost structures [4][3]. Summary by Sections Oil Price Trends - Q3 2024 saw Brent crude oil prices at $78.7 per barrel, with a range of $69 to $87, reflecting a 7.4% decrease from Q2 and an 8.4% decrease year-on-year [3][6]. - Gasoline and diesel prices were adjusted downwards four times, resulting in a total reduction of 805 CNY/ton for gasoline and 775 CNY/ton for diesel [3]. Price Differentials - The report notes that the price differentials for various petrochemical products have shown mixed trends, with some expanding and others contracting. For instance, the crude oil catalytic cracking differential increased by 259 CNY/barrel, while the polypropylene-propane differential narrowed by 296 CNY/ton [4][7]. - The PTA-PX price differential expanded by 103 CNY/ton, indicating a recovery in the polyester value chain [4][9]. Company Performance Forecasts - Major companies are expected to report varied earnings for Q3 2024, with China National Petroleum Corporation projected to have a net profit of 40 billion CNY (down 14% YoY, down 11% QoQ) and CNOOC expected to report a net profit of 37 billion CNY (up 9% YoY, down 10% QoQ) [4][10]. - The report emphasizes the potential for recovery in demand as the industry enters the "golden September and silver October" season, particularly for polyester products [4][3]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-quality refining companies such as Hengli Petrochemical and Rongsheng Petrochemical, as well as polyester producers like Tongkun Co., given the anticipated demand recovery [4][3]. - It also highlights the continued low-cost advantage of ethane-to-ethylene projects in China, recommending investment in satellite chemical companies [4][12].