摩根士丹利：清洁技术_美国大选剧本

Investment Rating - The clean tech industry in North America is rated as Attractive [3]. Core Viewpoints - The risks to clean energy spending from election outcomes are considered limited, with recommendations to buy stocks such as FSLR, BE, GEV, AES, and NEE on any election-related weakness [2]. - Full repeal of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) is deemed highly unlikely, even in a Republican sweep scenario, due to bipartisan support for certain provisions that drive investment in domestic manufacturing [15][21]. - The demand for renewables is expected to grow, driven by new sources of electricity demand from various sectors, which will require an increased buildout of renewable generation [7][8]. Summary by Sections Election Implications - The IRA is likely to remain intact under any election outcome, with significant bipartisan support for tax credits that incentivize domestic manufacturing [15][21]. - The potential for targeted repeal efforts exists, but key provisions such as the domestic manufacturing tax credit (45X) are considered safe due to bipartisan backing [15][27]. Policy Scenarios - Under a unified Democratic government, implementation of current policies will continue as planned, while a divided government may see some delays or limitations in implementation [4]. - A Trump presidency could lead to higher tariffs on clean energy imports, particularly from China, which may benefit domestic manufacturers like FSLR [29][31]. Stock Recommendations - FSLR (Overweight | Price Target: $332) is viewed positively due to its status as a major beneficiary of the IRA, with a low risk of IRA repeal [9]. - GEV (Overweight | Price Target: $256) is expected to be relatively insulated from election outcomes, with potential benefits from increased natural gas production under a Trump administration [10]. - BE (Overweight | Price Target: $22) is seen as neutral to positive under either administration, with no significant changes expected regardless of the election outcome [11]. Renewable Developers - AES (Overweight | Price Target: $25) and NEE (Overweight | Price Target: $90) are positioned to outperform post-election, as the long-term growth outlook for renewables remains intact [13]. - The election outcome is anticipated to clear uncertainty, allowing investors to express views on the future of the IRA and renewables growth more directly [13].