摩根士丹利：途虎养车_ 九月 F6 售后市场数据解读

Investment Rating - Stock Rating: Overweight [4] - Industry View: In-Line [4] - Price Target: HK$24.00, representing a 16$20.65 [4] Core Insights - The auto aftermarket demand showed a slight YoY decline of 5% in September, but the decline is narrowing, indicating potential recovery in 4Q24 as consumer sentiment improves [2][3] - Aftermarket average selling price (ASP) has stabilized since July, suggesting that price competition has not escalated further, although competition risks remain [2] - The report highlights a potential for faster-than-expected store expansion and higher same-store revenue as key drivers for upside potential [8] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for TUHU Car Inc are as follows: Rmb 13,601 million for FY23, Rmb 14,986 million for FY24, Rmb 16,483 million for FY25, and Rmb 17,875 million for FY26 [5] - EPS estimates are projected to increase from Rmb 0.60 in FY23 to Rmb 1.55 in FY26 [5] - The company is expected to achieve a return on equity (ROE) of 16.3% in FY24, increasing to 21.3% by FY26 [5]