摩根士丹利：ASML Holding NV_冬雨前的秋日阳光_

Investment Rating - The report maintains an Equal-weight rating for ASML Holding NV with a price target of €800 [7]. Core Insights - The company is expected to signal FY25 sales at the mid-point of the guidance range of €30-40 billion, with a forecast of €34.8 billion and EPS of €29.36 [3][11]. - The order intake for Q3 is anticipated to be around €4.5-5.0 billion, with expectations for Q4 to include early 2026 ordering [3][4]. - There is a focus on TSMC's ongoing spending and the sustainability of China DUV sales, which accounted for 49% of ASML's sales in 1H24 [4][13]. - The report highlights potential growth in HBM demand, despite weakness in DRAM commodity pricing [3][21]. Financial Projections - FY24 revenue is projected at €27.187 billion, with an EPS of €18.51, while FY25 is expected to see revenue growth to €34.805 billion and EPS of €29.36 [8][25]. - The gross margin is expected to improve from 51.5% in FY24 to 55% in FY25, with EBIT margin increasing from 31.1% to 37.9% [8][25]. - The valuation is projected at 25x 2026 estimated EPS of €32, leading to a price target of €800 [5]. Market Dynamics - The report notes that slowing capex at other foundries like Samsung and Intel will emphasize growth at TSMC into 2025-26 [3][4]. - There are concerns regarding potential normalization in China spending, which could impact ASML's sales growth in FY26 [13][21]. - The upcoming earnings report is expected to address management's guidance for 2025 and discuss long-term trends, including gross margin improvements and product roadmaps [17][18].