BANK OF CHINA(601988)2024-10-14 14:30Investment Rating - The investment rating for Bank of China Limited is Equal-weight [1][2][11]. Core Views - The report indicates that while there is good progress in the business transition of Bank of China, its valuation is less attractive compared to its Hong Kong counterpart [2][3]. - The earnings forecasts for Bank of China have been revised downwards due to the impact of mortgage rate cuts and LPR cuts, leading to a projected net interest margin (NIM) contraction [1][4]. - The report maintains a long-term view on the bank's performance, with a price target derived from a dividend discount model (DDM) remaining unchanged [1][4]. Summary by Sections Earnings Forecasts - EPS forecasts for Bank of China are adjusted to 0.74, 0.75, and 0.76 RMB for fiscal years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [1]. - NIM forecasts have been revised to 1.42%, 1.36%, and 1.39% for 2024, 2025, and 2026 [4]. - The net profit growth forecasts are lowered to 0.5%, 0.4%, and 1.6% for 2024, 2025, and 2026 [1]. Key Drivers - The report highlights the drivers of growth for Bank of China, including the transition towards wealth management and asset management amid business reforms [5]. - Total asset growth is projected at 12.2% for 2023, decreasing to 6.4% in 2024 and stabilizing at 6.1% for 2025 and 2026 [4]. Risk and Reward Analysis - The risk-reward analysis indicates a positive outlook for Bank of China, despite the challenges posed by external economic factors [3][5]. - The consensus price target distribution shows a mean target of 4.20 RMB, with Morgan Stanley's price target at 4.50 RMB [3].