摩根士丹利：中国邮政储蓄_风险回报更新

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Postal Savings Bank of China Co Ltd is "Overweight" with a price target of HK$5.30, indicating a favorable outlook for the stock [1][3]. Core Insights - The report highlights that Postal Savings Bank of China is well-positioned for potentially higher asset yields and lower deposit rates, which could enhance profitability [2]. - The earnings forecast has been revised to account for the impact of agency fee rate cuts, leading to an increase in net profit growth forecasts to 2.7%/6.9%/7.4% for 2024/25/26 [1]. - The net interest margin (NIM) forecasts have been adjusted downwards to 1.89%/1.86%/1.90% for 2024/25/26 due to anticipated mortgage rate cuts and LPR cuts [1]. Summary by Sections Earnings Forecasts - EPS estimates have been increased by 3.5%/2.2%/5.5% for 2024/25/26 following the agency rate cut [1]. - The cost-income ratio forecasts have been revised down to 64.62%/62.6%/62.6% for 2024/25/26 [1]. Key Financial Metrics - Net interest margin is projected to be 2.01% in 2023, decreasing to 1.89% in 2024 and stabilizing around 1.90% by 2026 [5]. - Total asset growth is expected to decline from 11.8% in 2023 to 9.6% in 2024, further decreasing to 7.2% by 2026 [5]. - Retail loan balance is forecasted to grow from RMB 4,470,248 million in 2023 to RMB 5,485,117 million by 2026 [5]. Risk and Reward Analysis - The report indicates a balanced view with a three-stage model reflecting a 20% bull and 20% bear scenario, suggesting a cautious yet optimistic outlook for the bank's performance [3]. - The bank is expected to benefit from a faster repricing of deposit rates and a steeper yield curve, which could enhance net interest income [3].