Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is Attractive [1]. Core Insights - Steel apparent consumption is increasing following the National Day Holiday, with long products showing a significant rise in output due to low inventory and improved profitability [1][1]. - Steel inventory has decreased at both traders and mills, with traders' inventory down by 205 kt (2.2% WoW) and mills' inventory down to 3,954 kt (2.1% WoW) as of October 10 [1][1]. - Iron ore inventory at small- and medium-sized mills decreased by 19.7 kt (9.6%) from September 25, indicating a tightening supply [1][1]. Summary by Sections Steel Consumption and Inventory - Apparent consumption of long and flat products increased by 25.5% WoW and 3.3% WoW, respectively, but decreased by 8.6% and 0.4% YoY [1]. - The inventory at traders decreased by 205 kt, with long products down 3.4% WoW and flat products down 1.4% WoW [1]. Iron Ore Market - Iron ore inventory at ports decreased by 1.5% WoW to 143.8 mt as of September 27, with the operating rate at sample mines increasing to 63.3% [1]. - Combined shipments from Australia and Brazil fell by 2.2 Mt week-on-week, primarily due to softer shipments from Rio Tinto [1]. Production Insights - The utilization rate of 247 mills increased by 0.39 ppts WoW to 84.5%, with CISA member mills' production at 1.99 mnt per day, up 2.7% from the preceding 10 days but down 6.8% YoY [1]. - Weekly output for long products rose by 3.8% WoW to 3.28 mnt, while flat products fell by 0.3% WoW to 5.36 mnt [1].
摩根士丹利：中国钢铁_中国钢铁和铁矿石周报