摩根士丹利：中国医疗保健_本周图表 – 香港零售和中药销售

Investment Rating - The industry view for China Healthcare is rated as Attractive [3][24]. Core Insights - Hong Kong retail sales from January to August 2024 declined by 8% year-over-year (YoY), with traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) sales down by 17% YoY [3]. - The performance of Tongrentang companies is affected by a weak local economy, including declining cross-border shopping from China and lower per capita spending [3]. - Beijing Tongrentang (600085-SH) and Tongrentang Tech (1666-HK) significantly rely on sales and profits from the Angong pill, with a notable portion of these sales coming from Hong Kong and Macau [3][4]. - A price increase of 20% for the Angong pill in Hong Kong and Macau has created a price differential, making it 35% more expensive than the mainland version, potentially deterring cross-border shopping [4]. Summary by Sections Hong Kong Retail Sales - In August 2024, overall retail sales in Hong Kong were HK$29.2 billion, with TCM sales at HK$386 million, reflecting declines of 10% and 12% YoY, respectively [2]. - The overall retail sales in Hong Kong from January to August 2024 showed a decline of 8% YoY, while TCM sales experienced a more significant drop of 17% YoY [3]. Tongrentang Companies - Beijing Tongrentang and Tongrentang Tech derive substantial profits from the Angong pill, with a significant fraction of sales coming from Hong Kong and Macau [3]. - The price hike for the Angong pill in Hong Kong and Macau has not been matched in mainland China, leading to a notable price gap [4]. Macau Retail Sales - Macau's overall retail sales in the second quarter of 2024 declined by 23.1% YoY, with pharmacy sales down by 7.4% YoY [6].