摩根士丹利：新兴市场展望与战略参考报告 美国大选不确定，新兴市场固定收益持中性立场

Investment Rating - The report maintains a market weight (MW) rating across emerging markets (EM) fixed income due to the upcoming binary risk event of the US elections [4][11]. Core Insights - EM fixed income markets are not pricing sufficient risk premia ahead of the US elections, despite stronger short-term economic activity indicators that are favorable for EM credit [4]. - EM GDP growth is projected to accelerate to 4% annual rate in 4Q24, up from 2.3% in 2Q/3Q24, primarily due to reduced downside risks in China [14]. - The report highlights that risks from US growth, Federal Reserve policy, and the presidential election are more significant for EM growth moving forward [5][16]. Summary by Sections Macro Developments - EM GDP growth is expected to rise to 4% annual rate in 4Q24, with limited positive spillovers to other EM regions [5][14]. - The US growth outlook, Fed policy, and the presidential election are critical factors influencing EM growth [5][16]. Trading Themes - The report adopts a market weight (MW) stance overall in EM local markets, with a narrow overweight (OW) position in Latin America and EMEA, and maintains MW in EM Asia [6]. - Specific recommendations include OW in currencies such as BRL, DOP, RON, TRY, ILS, EGP, and NGN, while being underweight (UW) in CNH, CZK, and PLN [6]. - In sovereigns, the report maintains MW, with OW in countries like Argentina, Brazil, Senegal, Egypt, and the Dominican Republic, while being UW in Hungary, Angola, and Uruguay [9]. Trade Recommendations - The report provides various trade recommendations, including long positions in Brazil, Turkey, and India, while suggesting bearish trades in China and Poland [8][9]. - Specific trades include long positions in local bonds and T-bills in various EM countries, with a focus on maintaining OW in select sovereigns and corporates [8][9]. Market Outlook - The report anticipates a potential slowdown in primary markets due to the sharp repricing of the US Treasury curve and the upcoming US elections [35]. - EM bond funds have seen significant inflows recently, but this trend is expected to recede as the US election approaches [31][33].