保险行业2024年三季报业绩前瞻：预计三季报资、负两端均表现亮眼

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating a positive outlook for the insurance sector [1]. Core Viewpoints - The report anticipates a significant increase in net profit for A-share listed insurance companies, projecting a year-on-year growth of 52.1% to 268.158 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, benefiting from favorable policy measures and improved market performance [1]. - The report highlights that the net profit growth rate for the insurance sector in Q3 2024 is expected to improve by 39.6 percentage points compared to the first half of 2024 [1]. - Specific companies are expected to show remarkable performance, with New China Life Insurance projected to achieve a year-on-year growth of 112.7% in net profit, followed by China Life (79.6%), China Pacific Insurance (59.6%), China Property & Casualty Insurance (41.9%), and Ping An Insurance (34.7%) [1]. Summary by Sections Insurance Sector Performance - The report indicates that the life insurance sector will benefit from a lower base and a switch in the predetermined interest rate, leading to an expected increase in new business value (NBV) growth rate compared to the first half of 2024 [1]. - The report notes that the new single premium growth for life insurance companies in Q3 2024 is expected to be impressive, with China Property & Casualty Insurance showing a year-on-year increase of 87.3% and Ping An Insurance at 65.7% [1]. Property and Casualty Insurance - The report anticipates that leading property and casualty insurance companies will continue to optimize their business structure and control risks, resulting in a better comprehensive cost ratio in Q3 2024 compared to the previous year [1]. - The report cites that the overall premium income for property and casualty insurance companies increased by 5.5% year-on-year to 1,165.7 billion yuan in the first eight months of 2024 [1]. Market and Investment Analysis - The report emphasizes that the capital market has shown strong performance, with significant gains in major indices, which is expected to support profit growth for insurance companies with a high proportion of fair value through profit or loss (FVTPL) assets [1]. - The report recommends a focus on New China Life Insurance and China Life for short-term investments, while suggesting China Ping An, China Property & Casualty Insurance, and AIA Group for long-term investments [1].