航空历史周期行情深度复盘：回顾历史周期演绎，研判当下航空板块

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to the aviation sector, indicating a positive outlook for the industry in the near term [75]. Core Insights - The aviation sector is characterized as a typical cyclical industry, sensitive to macroeconomic conditions, supply-demand dynamics, and fluctuations in oil prices and exchange rates. The current supply-demand fundamentals are improving, with stable domestic demand and a continuous recovery in international demand, suggesting a high certainty of long-term supply-demand differences [2][74]. - Historical analysis shows that each upward cycle in aviation stocks is typically accompanied by a bull market in the broader market, with significant price increases during these periods. The report highlights five historical upward cycles in aviation stocks prior to the pandemic, with the aviation index often outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index [2][24][61]. Summary by Sections 1. Factors Influencing Aviation Stock Volatility and Historical Performance - The aviation sector's performance is influenced by macroeconomic conditions, supply-demand relationships, and oil price fluctuations. Historical data indicates that aviation stocks generally require multiple supporting factors for price increases, with expectations often driving performance more than actual earnings [2][4]. 2. Review of Historical Upward Cycles in Aviation - The report reviews five significant upward cycles in aviation stocks, noting that during these periods, the aviation index typically outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index. For instance, from 2006 to 2008, the aviation index rose by 695% compared to 340% for the Shanghai Composite [24][25][49]. 3. Outlook for the Aviation Sector and Influencing Factors - The current environment for the aviation sector shows a low growth rate in market supply, with domestic passenger aircraft fleet numbers increasing by 2.9% year-on-year. Demand for air travel is on the rise, with both domestic and international passenger volumes expected to improve. The report anticipates that as international routes normalize, the supply-demand gap will widen, benefiting the sector [64][68][71].