房地产行业2024Q3三季报业绩前瞻：板块业绩仍磨底中，行业定调明显提升

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate sector, indicating a positive outlook for the industry [3][4][8]. Core Insights - The real estate industry is currently experiencing a bottoming phase, with performance expected to improve gradually. The report anticipates a slow recovery trajectory characterized by an "L"-shaped pattern due to ongoing macroeconomic and industry policy support [3][4]. - The report highlights that the industry's fundamentals remain weak, with sales volume and prices under pressure. However, recent policy measures are expected to stabilize the market and support a gradual recovery [3][4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of government policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market, including interest rate cuts on existing mortgages and adjustments to down payment requirements for second homes [3][4]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The report notes that the real estate sector's performance is still at a low point, with expectations for Q3 2024 performance to remain under pressure. The anticipated recovery is expected to be slow and uneven [3][4]. - Sales data indicates a significant decline, with major developers experiencing a year-on-year sales area drop of 41% from Q1 to Q3 2024. Monthly sales declines were reported at -27%, -29%, and -35% for July, August, and September respectively [3][4]. Company Profitability - The report provides projections for net profit growth for major companies in Q3 2024, with expected growth rates ranging from +5% to -40%: - Companies with growth of +5% to +10%: China Merchants Jinling [5] - Companies with growth of -10% to 0%: New Dazheng [5] - Companies with growth of -30% to -40%: China Merchants Shekou, Binjiang Group, Poly Developments, New Town Holdings [5] - Companies with growth below -40%: Jianfa Group [5] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong product capabilities and those poised for valuation recovery, including Binjiang Group, Poly Developments, China Merchants Shekou, Jianfa Group, and others [3][4]. - It also suggests monitoring second-hand housing intermediaries and property management firms such as I Love My Home and China Resources Vientiane [3][4].