首次覆盖：全球铜业巨擘，成本掌控卓越

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an OUTPERFORM rating for Southern Copper Corporation (SCCO US) [1] Core Views - Southern Copper Corporation is recognized as a global copper giant with excellent cost control and significant resource reserves, aiming to increase copper production to 1.3 million tons per year over the next decade with an investment exceeding $15 billion [3][22] - The company reported a net profit of $2.425 billion in 2023, with a 1.8% year-on-year increase in copper production [3] - The target price is set at $155.10, based on a 30x PE valuation for 2025 EPS of $5.17 [24] Company Overview - Southern Copper Corporation is one of the largest integrated copper producers globally, with significant operations in Mexico and Peru, and a copper metal reserve of 44.97 million tons, the largest in the world [3][4] - The company’s revenue from copper products accounted for 76% of total revenue in 2023, with molybdenum products contributing 13% [4] Financial Performance - In Q2 2024, the company achieved a net sales figure of $3.1183 billion, a 35.5% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of $950.2 million, up 73.6% from the previous year [6][22] - The adjusted EBITDA for Q2 2024 reached $1.797 billion, reflecting a 61.1% increase [6] Production and Cost Advantages - The company’s cash cost of copper production, excluding by-product credits, was $4,453 per ton in 2022, which dropped to $1,720 per ton when considering by-product revenues [8] - In 2023, copper production reached 911,014 tons, with a 1.8% increase from 2022, driven by growth in Peru [10] Future Projects - Key projects include Tia Maria, expected to start operations in 2027, and Michiquillay, projected to produce 225,000 tons of copper annually starting in 2032 [22] - The company plans to invest over $15 billion in expanding and upgrading existing projects and developing new copper resources over the next decade [22] Industry Outlook - The copper industry faces supply uncertainties due to geopolitical issues and environmental concerns, while demand remains strong, particularly from the renewable energy sector [23]