食品饮料行业周报：步入季报验证期，细分领域龙头经营稳健

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [1][42]. Core Views - The food and beverage sector is entering a verification period for quarterly reports, with leading companies in sub-sectors showing stable operations. The sector experienced a decline of 7.5% last week, ranking 26th among Shenwan's primary industries. The liquor sector saw an 8.2% drop, indicating a transition from valuation recovery to fundamental verification. Leading companies like Dongpeng Beverage and Three Squirrels reported excellent performance in Q3, suggesting a gradual improvement in corporate fundamentals amid ongoing stimulus policies and a recovering macroeconomic environment [2][5]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The food and beverage sector's performance last week was a decline of 7.5%, with soft drinks and fermented seasonings showing slight gains of +0.2% and a loss of -4.0%, respectively. Beer and health products lagged with declines of -8.7% and -9.7%. As of October 11, the valuation (PE-TTM) for the liquor sector was 21.1X, while the overall food and beverage sector stood at 21.7X [3][10]. Industry Data - In September 2024, the consumer price index (CPI) rose by 0.4% year-on-year, with food and tobacco prices increasing by 2.3%, contributing approximately 0.66 percentage points to the CPI rise. Notably, fresh vegetable prices surged by 22.9%, and pork prices increased by 16.2%. The average price for live pigs was 9.13 yuan per jin, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 5.4% and a year-on-year increase of 19.7% [4][29]. Key Insights - The liquor sector is currently in a bottoming phase, with sales pressure during the Mid-Autumn and National Day holidays. There is a risk of inventory clearance in the channels leading up to the Spring Festival. The average price for Moutai fluctuated between 2363-2450 yuan for a whole box and 2270-2325 yuan for individual bottles. Dongpeng Beverage is expected to achieve a revenue of 12.4-12.72 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 43.5%-47.2%. Three Squirrels anticipates a net profit of 338-342 million yuan, marking a growth of 99.1%-101.4% [5][22][35].