轻工行业：价格表现疲软，静待造纸顺周期复苏

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the light industry sector [3] Core Viewpoints - The demand side of the pulp and paper industry is currently weak, compounded by concentrated capacity releases, leading to ongoing supply-demand pressures and declining prices. However, with the implementation of recent economic policies, overall economic and terminal demand is expected to improve, potentially initiating a new upward cycle [2][5][6] Summary by Sections Raw Materials - As of October 11, 2024, the daily external prices for ARAUCO needle pulp and broadleaf pulp in China's main port market are $765 and $570 per ton, showing year-on-year changes of +4.79% and -1.72% respectively [1][8] - On October 12, 2024, the average daily price of needle pulp, broadleaf pulp, and chemical pulp in China decreased year-on-year by -0.72%, -15.47%, and -22.15% respectively [1][8] - The average daily price of waste yellow board paper (Grade A) in China on October 12, 2024, was down -6.52% year-on-year [23] Cultural Paper - As of October 12, 2024, the average daily prices for double glue paper and double copper paper in China are 5,213 and 5,500 CNY per ton, reflecting year-on-year declines of -13.49% and -6.46% respectively [33][38] - The release of publishing orders has been delayed compared to previous years, leading to weak demand overall [33] Packaging Paper - The average daily price of white card paper in China on October 12, 2024, was 4,195 CNY per ton, down -12.68% year-on-year [64] - The average daily prices for corrugated paper and boxboard paper were 2,606 and 3,601 CNY per ton, showing year-on-year declines of -12.72% and -6.51% respectively [70][71] - Inventory levels for packaging paper are relatively high, with significant increases in production capacity expected to exacerbate supply-demand imbalances [64][70] Life Paper - The average daily price of wood pulp life paper in China on October 12, 2024, was down -5.99% year-on-year [2] - The market dynamics in northern regions are better, but southern markets are struggling due to declining raw material prices [2] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the pulp and paper sector such as Sun Paper, Yueyang Forest Paper, and Hengan International, among others, as potential investment opportunities [2][5]