9月及三季度进出口数据点评：9月出口同比增速有所下滑

Trade Data Summary - In September, China's exports grew by 2.4% year-on-year, a decrease of 6.3 percentage points from the previous month[1] - Imports in September increased by 0.3% year-on-year, a slight decline of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month[1] - The trade surplus for September was $81.71 billion, down by $9.31 billion from the previous month[1] Quarterly Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, exports increased by 4.3% year-on-year, while imports rose by 2.2%, with a trade surplus of $68.95 billion[1] - In RMB terms, exports grew by 6.2% and imports by 4.1%, with a trade surplus of 490.43 billion yuan[1] Key Trade Partners - ASEAN accounted for 15.8% of total trade, with exports to ASEAN growing by 5.5% and imports by 4.2% in September[1] - Exports to the EU rose by 1.3%, while imports fell by 3.5% in September, with the EU representing 12.4% of total trade[1] - Trade with the US totaled $60.71 billion, with exports increasing by 2.2% and imports by 6.7% in September[1] Economic Outlook - The contribution of major trading partners to export growth narrowed in September, contributing 1.3 percentage points, down from 2.8 percentage points in August[1] - The US manufacturing inventory trends remain unstable, with capital goods inventory increasing by 0.2% and consumer goods inventory decreasing by 0.1%[1] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in September may improve liquidity conditions, potentially leading to a moderate recovery in export growth[1]