9月通胀点评：等待稳增长的政策组合拳产生影响

Inflation Overview - September CPI year-on-year growth was 0.4%, lower than market expectations, primarily due to weak domestic demand[2] - Core CPI increased by 0.1% year-on-year, indicating a continued weakness in inflationary pressures[2] - Food prices rose by 3.3% year-on-year, contributing approximately 0.61 percentage points to the CPI increase[2] Price Index Trends - September PPI decreased by 2.8% year-on-year, marking a 1.0 percentage point decline from August[10] - PPI has shown a continuous month-on-month decline for four consecutive months, with a 0.6% decrease in September[10] - The decline in PPI was significantly influenced by production material prices, which fell by 3.3% year-on-year[10] Sector Performance - The highest year-on-year growth in CPI components was seen in other goods and services (3.5%), food and tobacco (2.3%), and clothing (1.3%) in September[2] - Notable declines were observed in transportation and communication, as well as housing prices, which experienced negative growth[2] - The manufacturing sector showed signs of recovery with the PMI production index rising above the threshold, indicating potential stabilization in industrial prices[13] Policy Implications - Recent monetary and fiscal policies aimed at stabilizing growth are expected to positively impact domestic demand in the coming months[1] - The upcoming macroeconomic policies from key government meetings are anticipated to influence growth and domestic demand from Q4 2024 to 2025[4] - The focus on stabilizing prices for essential goods such as food and utilities is critical given the current low inflation levels[4]