基础化工2024Q3业绩前瞻：淡季叠加成本走弱，终端屯库转为去库，基础化工价差走弱，Q3行业盈利季节性承压

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Optimistic" rating for the basic chemical industry [5]. Core Viewpoints - The traditional off-season in Q3 2024, combined with weakening energy costs, is expected to pressure downstream replenishment demand, leading to a gradual decline in price differentials for basic chemicals [4][5]. - The domestic chemical demand is anticipated to bottom out under policy support, while external demand continues to materialize under a "soft landing" scenario [5]. - Key sectors to watch include phosphoric fertilizers, coal chemicals, vitamins, spandex, fluorochemicals, tires, titanium dioxide, explosives, semiconductors, and packaging materials, with significant year-on-year profit growth expected in Q3 2024 for these sectors [4][5]. Summary by Relevant Sections Q3 2024 Performance Forecast - The average EPS for the first three quarters of 2024 is projected to be 0.68 CNY, an increase of 8.4% year-on-year, with Q3 EPS expected at 0.23 CNY, up 14.9% year-on-year but down 10.6% quarter-on-quarter [4]. - Specific companies such as Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, and Luxi Chemical are highlighted for their expected performance, with Wanhua's Q3 net profit forecasted at 3.8 billion CNY, down 8% year-on-year [4][5]. Key Company Insights - Fluorochemical Sector: Companies like Juhua Co. and Sanmei Co. are expected to see significant profit increases due to the implementation of quota systems and rising demand for refrigerants [4][5]. - Tire Sector: Companies such as Sailun and Linglong are projected to benefit from strong order and production demand, with Q3 profits expected to rise significantly year-on-year [4][5]. - New Materials Sector: The semiconductor materials segment is expected to show steady growth, with companies like Yake Technology and Huate Gas projected to perform well [4][5]. Traditional Industry Focus - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring leading companies in traditional sectors, including Wanhua Chemical and Hualu Hengsheng, as they navigate the challenges of the off-season and fluctuating energy costs [5].