2024年第三季度北京房地产市场回顾

Investment Rating - The report indicates a marginal improvement in the Beijing office market, with a focus on emerging areas, while core market adjustments lead to accelerated rent declines [1][7]. Core Insights - The Beijing office market saw a 49% quarter-on-quarter increase in new lease transaction area, although it remains 7% lower than the same period last year [7]. - The retail property market is experiencing weak demand from high-end brands, while mass consumption continues to grow, leading to a downward trend in market rents [1][10]. - The logistics market in Beijing faces cooling demand, with intensified rent declines and ongoing demand release in surrounding areas [1][14]. - The TMT sector continues to adjust, with only two sub-markets absorbing demand, resulting in overall rent declines [1][18]. Office Market Summary - No new projects were delivered in the office market during the third quarter of 2024, with a net absorption of 125,000 square meters, a 160% increase quarter-on-quarter [7]. - The overall vacancy rate decreased by 0.7 percentage points to 21.0%, but average rents fell by 3.1% to 265.8 yuan per square meter per month [7]. - The demand from the financial sector has returned to the forefront, driven by fintech, funds, and insurance tenants [7][8]. Retail Property Market Summary - The retail property market's vacancy rate slightly decreased to 7.2%, but high-end consumption remains weak, with a 4.6% decline in restaurant and 0.5% in retail revenues [10][11]. - New store openings in high-end brands have slowed, while affordable dining and retail formats are gaining traction [10][11]. - The average rent for first-floor shopping centers fell by 0.7% to 31.4 yuan per square meter per day [11]. Logistics Market Summary - The logistics market recorded a negative net absorption of 38,000 square meters, with an overall vacancy rate reaching a historical high of 24.4% [14]. - Average rents in the logistics sector fell by 4.1% to 51.9 yuan per square meter per month [14]. - The third-party logistics sector accounted for 51% of new lease areas, with demand from manufacturing and consumer goods also noted [14]. Business Park Market Summary - The business park market recorded a historical low net absorption of -63,000 square meters, with TMT sector adjustments leading to limited new lease demand [18][19]. - Only two sub-markets, Zhongguancun Software Park and Shunyi, recorded positive absorption [19]. - Average rents in the business park sector decreased by 1.1% to 150.8 yuan per square meter per month [19]. Property Investment Market Summary - The property investment market in Beijing recorded a total transaction volume of 4.34 billion yuan, down 64% quarter-on-quarter and 73% year-on-year [25][26]. - Retail properties and pure office segments accounted for 28% and 20% of total transaction volume, respectively [25]. - The market is seeing increased activity in consumption infrastructure REITs, with notable transactions in community shopping centers [25][26].