银行2024年9月金融数据点评：期待政策合力托举“强预期”

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the banking sector, anticipating policy implementation to catalyze cyclical opportunities [4][20]. Core Insights - The financial data for September 2024 indicates a continued weak credit environment, with new social financing (社融) of 3.8 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 369.2 billion yuan. The total social financing for the first three quarters reached 25.7 trillion yuan, down 3.7 trillion yuan year-on-year [3][7]. - The report emphasizes that while credit growth remains weak, the implementation of incremental policies is expected to stimulate effective demand recovery. The focus should shift to the improvement of high-frequency economic indicators and the optimization of credit structure [3][4]. - Government bond issuance continues to be a major contributor to social financing, with 1.5 trillion yuan issued in September, an increase of 543.7 billion yuan year-on-year. The report anticipates that government bonds will remain a crucial support for social financing in the near future [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Data Overview - In September, new credit amounted to 1.59 trillion yuan, a decrease of 720 billion yuan year-on-year, with the stock credit growth rate declining to 7.8% [3][7]. - M1 decreased by 7.4% year-on-year, while M2 grew by 6.8%, reflecting a recovery in M2 growth rate [3][7]. Credit Structure - Corporate loans showed a mixed performance, with medium to long-term loans decreasing by 294.4 billion yuan year-on-year, while short-term loans also saw a decline [3][4]. - Residential medium to long-term loans decreased by 317 billion yuan year-on-year, but there are signs of recovery in housing sentiment in major cities [3][4]. Government Policy Impact - The report highlights a more proactive fiscal stance, with expectations of increased government debt issuance to support social financing. The Ministry of Finance has indicated plans to enhance debt limits to alleviate local government debt pressures [3][4]. Stock Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on smaller, high-quality banks with strong performance and resilience, such as Suzhou Bank, Jiangsu Bank, and others, as they are expected to benefit from cyclical recovery [4][20].