高盛：GS TWIG Notes_本周全球研究 - 2024 年 10 月 11 日

Investment Rating - The report raises the investment rating for China to Overweight across Asia stocks, indicating a positive outlook for the region [3]. Core Insights - The US growth outlook has improved, with a reduced probability of recession to 15% over the next 12 months, supported by employment levels, consumer engagement, and subdued inflation [2]. - The S&P 500 EPS forecast for 2025 has been increased to $268, reflecting an 11% year-over-year growth, with a new 12-month target of 6300 for the index [2]. - In China, consumption trends during the Golden Week exceeded expectations, indicating potential for recovery in consumer spending [6]. - The semiconductor sector in China is expected to see long-term revenue growth driven by rising demand for localized semiconductors [6]. - The report highlights opportunities in the solar industry, predicting a price rebound of 5%-10% across the value chain by 2025 [6]. Summary by Sections Macro Issues - The US Federal Reserve is expected to continue cutting rates to a terminal rate of 3.25-3.5% by June 2025, with smaller cuts anticipated in upcoming meetings [2]. - The dovish pivot from the Fed has increased risk appetite, with expectations for carry-driven returns in credit markets [2]. Sector Analysis - The Chinese jewelry market is facing challenges due to a shrinking population and a shift in consumer preferences from goods to experiences [5]. - The report emphasizes the potential for bond buying opportunities in emerging markets, particularly in Mexico [3]. Regional Focus - In Europe, the labor market is forecasted to stagnate, with an expected rise in the unemployment rate to 6.7% by the end of 2024 [4]. - The report notes that powerful rallies can occur in China even during prolonged bear markets, suggesting resilience in the equity market [3]. Company-Specific Insights - The report identifies several companies with strong growth potential, including Barclays, Lonza Group, Builders FirstSource, and Sabesp, all rated as Buy [11][12].