高盛：钢铁利润率上升推动铁矿石消费，但除非终端需求增加，否则铁矿石价格可能下跌

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the iron ore industry but indicates a cautious outlook due to potential price corrections unless end demand increases. Core Insights - Iron ore prices have retreated by 5% from a three-month high, currently at $104/t, but are still 17$104/t, down 5% from a recent high, but still significantly higher than pre-stimulus levels [1][2] - The active SGX iron ore contract closed at $105/t, reflecting a 10% drop in response to disappointing market expectations following the NDRC's press conference [2][4] Consumption and Supply Trends - Iron ore consumption has risen by 6% since late August, driven by increased hot metal output from steel mills responding to improved margins [1][4] - Despite increased consumption, iron ore port stocks are rising, indicating a potential oversupply situation as arrivals into China have surged [2][6] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The market is awaiting further stimulus announcements, which could provide short-term support for iron ore and steel prices [3][5] - Without a significant increase in end demand for steel, iron ore prices are at risk of correction, as current supply dynamics do not justify the elevated price levels [6][8]