高盛：全球市场分析师_二十年新兴市场固定收益投资的经验教训

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the Emerging Markets (EM) fixed income sector, but it highlights the resilience and potential for higher yields compared to other sovereign fixed income assets, suggesting a favorable outlook for investors in this asset class [2][10][30]. Core Insights - The report outlines four key lessons from two decades of EM fixed income investing, emphasizing the maturation of the asset class, its resilience during economic shocks, and the benefits of including EM fixed income in broader portfolios [2][7][10]. - EM fixed income has become a more reliable source of yield despite a decline in outperformance over the past decade, demonstrating resilience during significant global events such as the Global Financial Crisis and the Covid pandemic [2][8][19]. - The macroeconomic environment plays a crucial role in the performance of EM fixed income, with favorable conditions including stable or easing rates and positive growth re-ratings [3][10][39]. Summary by Sections Performance and Maturity - EM fixed income has evolved into a more mature asset class, characterized by less outperformance but greater resilience against shocks [2][8][12]. - The performance of EM fixed income has been mixed over the past decade, with local currency debt showing more volatility compared to hard currency debt [14][15][19]. Macro Environment - EM fixed income tends to outperform in environments where risk-sensitive assets perform well and during periods of US Dollar weakness [35][39]. - The report identifies specific periods of outperformance and underperformance over the last two decades, correlating these with macroeconomic conditions [31][32][34]. Portfolio Diversification - Including EM fixed income in portfolios can enhance diversification, with hard currency EM providing higher returns for higher risk tolerance portfolios, while local currency EM offers differentiated risk exposure [4][10][45]. - The report suggests that adding EM fixed income can improve expected returns for the same level of volatility in fixed income portfolios [42][44]. Currency Risk Management - Managing currency risk is critical for investors in EM local debt, as fluctuations in foreign exchange can significantly impact total returns [5][11][46]. - The report discusses the trade-offs involved in hedging currency risk, highlighting that while it can reduce volatility, it may also limit exposure to potential cyclical gains [46][57].