高盛：全球信贷交易商_分散回归

Investment Rating - The report favors leveraged loans over high-yield (HY) bonds due to severe price appreciation constraints in the HY bond market and sufficient excess carry in leveraged loans [2][9]. Core Insights - Dispersion in the USD high-yield market has shown convincing signs of decline for the first time since 2022, driven by a rally in CCC-rated bonds and sectors like Wirelines and Cable & Satellite [5][6]. - Default rates for US leveraged loan issuers are forecasted to fall to 4.5% by the end of 2025, while US HY bonds are expected to see a slight rise in defaults but ultimately stabilize around 3% [3][21]. - European default rates for both HY bonds and leveraged loans are projected to hover around 4% in 2025, reflecting a tougher macro outlook [3][22]. Summary by Sections Dispersion and Market Dynamics - The decline in dispersion is not limited to CCC-rated bonds; the B bucket has also experienced a reduction in dispersion [5][6]. - The combination of easier monetary policy, continued normalization in inflation, and robust growth is expected to further normalize dispersion within the B bucket [5]. Default Rate Forecasts - The 12-month trailing issuer-weighted default rate for US HY bonds has decreased to 3.0% from 4.1% earlier this year, while leveraged loan defaults have risen to 6.8% [21][22]. - Distressed exchanges have accounted for a record share of defaults in both the US HY bond and leveraged loan markets, with 73% and 69% respectively [22]. Leveraged Loans vs. HY Bonds - The report recommends an overweight allocation to leveraged loans due to their attractive excess carry, which is sufficient to absorb upcoming Fed cuts [2][9]. - Despite HY bonds outperforming leveraged loans on a total return basis year-to-date, leveraged loans have outperformed on an excess return basis by over 3% [9][13]. LBO Activity and Market Conditions - LBO transaction volumes are up 25% year-to-date compared to the same period last year, although they remain below the average of 2018-2022 [7][10]. - The average equity contribution in LBO transactions has increased to 49%, higher than the pre-COVID average of 40% [10].