高盛：新兴市场周度启动_中国宽松政策为新兴市场反弹增添广度；由于中国扭转了部分涨势，MSCI 新兴市场指数回落 2%；关注中国刺激措施和石油敏感性

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for Emerging Markets (EM) equities, with a 12-month target for MSCI EM set at 1300, driven by underlying earnings growth and a flat target P/E [19]. Core Insights - The easing of policies in China has broadened the EM equity rally, with MSCI EM up 10% from September lows, primarily led by P/E expansion and improved earnings sentiment [12][19]. - The report highlights that Colombia, Saudi Arabia, and Brazil equities exhibit the highest positive sensitivity to oil prices, while Central and Eastern Europe (CE-3), India, and Korea show the most negative sensitivity [3][19]. - Recent downgrades in earnings estimates for Korea, Brazil, and China have occurred, but overall earnings sentiment has improved marginally [19]. Performance Overview - MSCI EM declined by 2% week-over-week, while MSCI China saw a significant drop of 7%. In contrast, Taiwan outperformed with a 4% increase [1]. - Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) sold $3 billion in EMs (excluding China), with India leading the outflows at$2 billion [19]. - The report notes that higher oil prices above $80 per barrel historically weigh on EM equities, with a focus on the impact of geopolitical tensions and expectations of improving growth in China [1][7]. Regional Insights - The report emphasizes that EM equities have historically performed well during oil rallies, particularly in Latin America and South Africa, while China and Taiwan have lagged [5][9]. - Korea, South Africa, and Peru are identified as having the highest sensitivity to both China's economic growth and equity rally [19][20]. - The report suggests that MENA and Latin American equities serve as good hedges if oil prices rise, while North Asia and South Africa benefit from positive momentum in China [9][19]. Earnings and Valuation - The current valuation for MSCI EM is at 12.5x NTM P/E, which is in line with historical averages, but valuations are elevated in India and Taiwan, while depressed in Colombia and Hungary [1][19]. - Earnings for 2024 have been revised lower due to downgrades in key markets, but the overall sentiment has shown signs of improvement [19].