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高盛：特斯拉公司 (TSLA)_对“我们，机器人”10_10 活动的初步想法
300024SIASUN(300024) 高盛证券·2024-10-15 08:49

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tesla Inc. (TSLA) is Neutral, with a 12-month price target of 230,reflectingadownsidepotentialof3.7230, reflecting a downside potential of 3.7% from the current price of 238.77 [11][14]. Core Insights - Tesla showcased significant advancements in its Optimus humanoid robot and introduced the Cybercab and Robovan at the 'We, Robot' event, indicating strong progress in autonomous vehicle technology [1][2]. - The company plans to initiate unsupervised Full Self Driving (FSD) robotaxi operations in Texas and California next year, with production of the Cybercab expected to start in 2026 or before 2027 [2][4]. - Tesla anticipates that its Cybercab will have an average operating cost of approximately 0.20permile,withpricingexpectedtobearound0.20 per mile, with pricing expected to be around 0.30 to 0.40permile[3][4].−Thelong−termrevenuepotentialfromrobotaxisissignificant,althoughinitialdeploymentsmayyieldlimitedrevenues[4][6].SummarybySectionsCybercabandRobovan−TheCybercabisatwo−seatvehicledesignedwithouttraditionalcontrols,whiletheRobovancanaccommodateupto20passengersortransportgoods[2].−TeslaaimsfortheCybercabtobepricedatapproximately0.40 per mile [3][4]. - The long-term revenue potential from robotaxis is significant, although initial deployments may yield limited revenues [4][6]. Summary by Sections Cybercab and Robovan - The Cybercab is a two-seat vehicle designed without traditional controls, while the Robovan can accommodate up to 20 passengers or transport goods [2]. - Tesla aims for the Cybercab to be priced at approximately 30,000 or less, with plans for inductive charging and self-cleaning capabilities [3][4]. Optimus Robot - The Optimus robot demonstrated impressive capabilities, including lifelike movements and interactive features, suggesting a growing role in Tesla's future [10][11]. - The total addressable market (TAM) for high-end humanoid robots could exceed 10billionby2030,withlimitedproductionofOptimusVersion1expectedtostartearlynextyear[11].FinancialProjections−RevenueprojectionsforTeslaindicategrowthfrom10 billion by 2030, with limited production of Optimus Version 1 expected to start early next year [11]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for Tesla indicate growth from 96.77 billion in 2023 to 140.04billionby2026,withEBITDAexpectedtorisefrom140.04 billion by 2026, with EBITDA expected to rise from 16.63 billion to 29.54billioninthesameperiod[13].−TheEPSisprojectedtoincreasefrom29.54 billion in the same period [13]. - The EPS is projected to increase from 2.60 in 2023 to $4.20 by 2026, reflecting anticipated growth in the company's software and FSD business [13].