高盛：中国房地产_专家认为大规模财政刺激不太可能对房地产市场产生影响但明年房价有望企稳

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the China Real Estate sector, but it suggests a cautious outlook on property investment due to ongoing challenges in the market [2][3]. Core Insights - Large-scale fiscal stimulus for the housing market is deemed unlikely, but property prices may stabilize next year [2][3]. - The central government's policy stance focuses on housing as a necessity rather than a speculative investment, emphasizing the development of both social and commodity housing systems [2][3]. - The report highlights that the primary market volume is unlikely to improve soon due to competition from an increasing supply in the secondary market [3][11]. Summary by Sections Policy Outlook - The easing impact of current policies is limited compared to the 2014-2015 cycle, with slower implementation of measures and less effective demand stimulation [7][10]. - Fiscal policy measures have not been fully utilized, contrasting with more aggressive measures taken in previous downturns [7][10]. Market Dynamics - The secondary market is expected to continue seeing significant supply, which may hinder recovery in the primary market [11][12]. - Homebuyers are hesitant to increase leverage due to low confidence in future income and macroeconomic uncertainties [11][12]. Price and Completion Outlook - Property prices may stabilize in 2025, with lower-tier cities showing decelerated price declines [13][14]. - Although project completion risks have eased, the handover process remains challenging due to quality concerns and buyer reluctance [14]. Investment Trends - Property investment is projected to contract year-on-year, with a potential decline of 10% in 2025, influenced by ongoing reductions in property construction [16]. - The land market may see a narrower year-on-year decline or even an increase in 2025, driven by buoyant sales from state-owned enterprises [16].