房地产市场高频跟踪①：第三方数据显示国庆市场回暖，一线表现相对突出

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the real estate market, suggesting a potential stabilization following recent government policies aimed at boosting market confidence [2][3]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the real estate market is experiencing a marginal increase in activity during the National Day holiday, particularly in first-tier cities, with Shenzhen showing exceptional performance [1][4]. - A series of supportive policies were introduced in late September, including financial measures to stimulate both supply and demand, marking a significant shift in government stance towards stabilizing the real estate market [2][3]. - The report notes a clear differentiation in market performance between cities, with first-tier cities and select second-tier cities seeing stronger sales compared to others [4][5]. Policy Summary - The government has introduced five financial support measures aimed at both supply and demand sides of the real estate market, reflecting a commitment to stabilize the sector [2]. - First-tier cities, particularly Guangzhou, have implemented significant policy relaxations, including the complete removal of purchase restrictions, while other cities like Beijing and Shanghai have made targeted adjustments [3][4]. Sales Performance - During the National Day holiday, the average daily subscription area in 22 key cities increased by 12% month-on-month and 26% year-on-year, indicating a robust recovery in sales activity [4]. - Shenzhen's performance was particularly noteworthy, with a 345% month-on-month increase in average daily subscriptions and a 242% year-on-year increase during the holiday period [4][5]. - The second-hand housing market also showed resilience, with viewing and transaction volumes improving, although some sellers have begun to raise prices in response to market sentiment [5]. Outlook - The report emphasizes that while there is a marginal increase in market activity, the sustainability of this trend remains uncertain and will depend on the implementation and effectiveness of subsequent policies [6].