摩根士丹利：中国市场回暖十问，包含股票筛选！

Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the Chinese market, with a potential 10% technical rebound in the stock market, particularly for A-shares [1] Core Views - Policy shifts are expected to drive moderate GDP growth improvement over the next two quarters, with a projected increase from 3% (annualized QoQ) in Q2-Q3 2024 to 5% [1] - The report highlights that the policy shift includes unprecedented liquidity tools to boost the stock market and stabilize the real estate market [1] - The reflation path remains challenging due to structural imbalances, and achieving sustainable inflation and growth may require a prolonged effort [1] Policy and Economic Outlook - A supplementary budget of 1-2 trillion RMB is expected to be announced by the National People's Congress in late October 2024, aimed at supporting consumption and local fiscal measures [4] - The central bank is anticipated to cut interest rates by 10-20 basis points and lower the reserve requirement ratio by 25-50 basis points by the end of 2024 [4] - Real estate policies may include further relaxation of purchase restrictions in first-tier cities and measures to accelerate inventory reduction [4] GDP and Inflation Projections - GDP growth is expected to improve from 3.6% (annualized QoQ) in Q3 2024 to 4.7% in Q4 2024 and further to 5.3% in Q1 2025 [10] - Deflationary pressures are deeply entrenched, and breaking the deflationary cycle will require more aggressive policy measures [10] Asset Allocation and Stock Market Strategy - A-shares with dividend yields and free cash flow yields significantly above the 2.25% relending rate are recommended for investment [1] - Stocks with A-share prices benefiting from recent policy boosts but trading at a discount in Hong Kong are also highlighted as potential beneficiaries [1] - The CSI 300 index may have around 10% upside potential in the short term, driven by policy support and improving macroeconomic conditions [20] Key Risks and Monitoring Indicators - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the implementation details of fiscal stimulus measures, particularly the scale, speed, and execution of policies [23] - External risks, including geopolitical uncertainties and potential global economic slowdown, are also noted as factors that could impact the market [24]