2024年第三季度北京房地产行业市场回顾

Office Market - The Beijing office market saw a 49% QoQ increase in new lease transaction area, but it was still 7% lower YoY [3] - Relocation activities dominated the new lease market, accounting for 82% of the total new lease area, an 11 percentage point increase QoQ [3] - Financial technology, fund, and insurance tenants drove the financial sector back to the top of demand, while TMT remained stable in second place [3] - The overall vacancy rate dropped by 0.7 percentage points QoQ to 21.0%, but the average rent fell by 3.1% QoQ to RMB 265.8 per square meter per month [3] - Emerging submarkets like Lize, Shijingshan, and Tongzhou contributed 86% of the net absorption, which increased by 160% QoQ to 125,000 square meters [3] Retail Market - The Beijing retail market saw a slight decline in vacancy rate to 7.2% QoQ, with the opening of Tongzhou Shoukai MixC injecting new vitality [6] - High-end retail and dining demand remained weak, with some international brands closing stores, while affordable dining and snack brands saw growth [6] - The average first-floor rent in shopping centers fell by 0.7% QoQ to RMB 31.4 per square meter per day, with notable declines in Zhongguancun, Wangjing, Xidan, and CBD [7] - Future supply includes 960,000 square meters of new retail space in non-core areas, with projects like Haidian Joy City and Changping Shadi Wanda Plaza [8] Logistics Market - Beijing's logistics market saw no new high-standard warehouse projects in Q3 2024, with transaction volume down 25% QoQ [9] - Net absorption was negative for the third consecutive quarter at -38,000 square meters, pushing the vacancy rate to a record high of 24.4% [9] - Average rents fell by 4.1% QoQ to RMB 51.9 per square meter per month, with Tongzhou and Majuqiao showing relatively higher activity [9] - Langfang and Tianjin saw increased demand, with net absorption rising by 56% and 8.3% QoQ, respectively, driven by manufacturing and third-party logistics [10] Business Parks - The Beijing business park market recorded one new project delivery in Q3 2024, adding 39,000 square meters of industrial space [12] - Net absorption hit a historic low of -63,000 square meters, driven by TMT sector adjustments and limited new demand [13] - TMT accounted for nearly 50% of new lease demand, while the healthcare sector remained stable at 20% [14] - Average rents fell by 1.1% QoQ to RMB 150.8 per square meter per month, with some submarkets like Zhongguancun Software Park showing resilience [14] Investment Market - Beijing's property investment market recorded nine transactions totaling RMB 4.34 billion in Q3 2024, down 64% QoQ and 73% YoY [19] - Retail and office properties accounted for 28% and 20% of total transaction volume, respectively, with retail activity boosted by REITs expansion [19] - Core areas accounted for half of the transaction volume, with the largest deal being the Chongwenmen New View Business Building in Dongcheng District [20] - Investor interest in core assets increased as asset prices continued to decline, with capitalisation rates expanding across sectors [20]