Employment Data - In September, the U.S. added 254,000 non-farm jobs, exceeding market expectations of 150,000[2] - The unemployment rate decreased to 4.1%, slightly better than the expected 4.2%[2] - The labor participation rate remained stable at 62.7%, matching market expectations[2] Economic Support - The fiscal and monetary "dual easing" has supported economic recovery, with the federal deficit reaching $651.7 billion in Q3 2024, a year-on-year increase of 115.4%[3] - The Atlanta Fed's GDPNOW model indicates a steady economic expansion with an annualized growth rate exceeding 2% for Q3 2024[3] Labor Market Dynamics - Job vacancies rebounded to 8.04 million in August, with a vacancy rate of 4.8%[4] - The labor supply remains tight due to an aging population and a decline in illegal immigration, with the participation rate for those aged 55 and older down by 4.0% compared to 2019[4] Wage Trends - Average hourly earnings increased by 0.4% month-on-month in September, with a year-on-year growth rate rebounding to 4.0%[2] - Wage growth is occurring in sectors experiencing labor shortages, with professional and business services seeing a 0.8% increase in wages[5] Market Reactions - Following strong employment data, market expectations for interest rate cuts have moderated, with anticipated cuts reduced from 65 basis points to 50 basis points for the remainder of the year[7] - U.S. Treasury yields rose significantly, with the 2-year yield increasing by 22 basis points to 3.92%[7] Federal Reserve Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower rates 1-2 times this year, with a total reduction of 25-50 basis points anticipated[8] - The Fed's decision-making flexibility has improved due to significant inflation reduction and strong employment figures[8]
行内偕作·宏观点评：美国非农就业数据点评（2024年9月）-平缓降息
Zhao Shang Yin Hang·2024-10-15 13:00