宏观经济月报（2024年9月）：美欧经济分化，中国逆周期加力

Group 1: Overseas Economic Trends - The divergence in major Western economies is re-emerging, with the U.S. showing strength while Europe is weak, as evidenced by the Fed's unexpected 50bp rate cut in September[1] - The U.S. economy is supported by a "dual easing" macro policy, leading to a significant recovery, while the European Central Bank is implementing hawkish rate cuts due to economic slowdowns in France and Germany[1] - Japan's economy is experiencing a stable recovery, with the Bank of Japan expected to continue raising interest rates despite recent financial market turbulence[1] Group 2: U.S. Economic Insights - The Fed's rate cut of 50bp was driven by a reassessment of inflation risks and employment trends, with the policy rate still high at 4.75-5.0% after the cut[18] - The U.S. fiscal deficit for the 2024 fiscal year has reached $1.9 trillion, exceeding the previous year's deficit, with expectations of continued fiscal expansion leading up to the elections[18] - Consumer spending is projected to grow at an annualized rate of 3.7% in Q3, primarily supported by fiscal measures, with goods consumption expected to rise by 5.5%[21] Group 3: Financial and Fiscal Conditions - In August, new RMB loans amounted to 900 billion, significantly lower than seasonal expectations, impacting social financing growth[1] - The M2 money supply growth remains stable at 6.3%, but M1 growth has dropped to -7.3%, indicating insufficient monetary activity[1] - Fiscal revenues in August showed a widening decline, with tax revenues underperforming and land transfer income hitting a historical low[1] Group 4: Chinese Economic Outlook - China's economic recovery continues but faces increasing pressure from weak supply and demand, with the urgency to achieve a growth target of around 5% rising[1] - Domestic investment and consumption growth rates are declining, while external demand remains resilient, highlighting the need for policy support and fiscal investment projects[1]