资本市场四季报（2024年10月）：境内政策超预期快速提升风险偏好，可阶段性增配股票

Group 1 - The report highlights that domestic policies have exceeded expectations, significantly boosting market risk appetite and suggesting a phase of increased equity allocation [3][14][15] - The report anticipates two phases in market trading for the fourth quarter: first, trading more supporting policies, and second, trading the fundamental performance post-policy implementation [14][15] - The report suggests that the recent policy measures are likely to enhance the medium-term returns of equity assets, particularly in the A-share market [14][15] Group 2 - The report indicates that the U.S. Federal Reserve has officially entered a rate-cutting cycle, with expectations of further cuts in the coming years, which is expected to lower the yield on U.S. Treasury bonds [13][21] - It is noted that the performance of U.S. equities is expected to remain stable but with limited upward potential due to high valuations and economic slowdown concerns [19][21] - The report recommends maintaining a high allocation to U.S. dollar bonds, as the Fed's rate cuts are expected to lower bond yields further [21][22] Group 3 - The report discusses the outlook for the Chinese yuan, indicating a short-term strengthening due to recent policy measures, but warns of long-term pressures from interest rate differentials and potential trade tensions [22] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the impact of U.S. election outcomes on market dynamics, particularly regarding trade relations and economic policies [13][22] - The report suggests that the A-share market is likely to challenge previous resistance levels, with a focus on dividend stocks and selective allocations to consumer and technology sectors [18][19]