农林牧渔行业2024年三季报前瞻：生猪业绩兑现白鸡景气不佳，宠物食品高增延续

Investment Rating - The report rates the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry as "Overweight" [3][5][16] Core Insights - The agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector is expected to see a significant turnaround in performance, with a projected net profit of 26.24 billion yuan for the third quarter of 2024, marking a substantial year-on-year recovery [3][5] - The top five sub-industries by year-on-year profit growth are: pig farming (+336%), seed industry (+102%), pet food (+84%), feed (+54%), and broiler farming (+49%) [3][5] - Key companies expected to report the highest profit growth in Q3 2024 include Muyuan Foods (+673%), Petty Holdings (+628%), and Lihua Agricultural (+530%) [3][5] Summary by Relevant Sections Pig Farming - The reduction in supply is expected to drive up pig prices, with the average price for external three-way crossbred pigs projected at 19.42 yuan/kg in Q3 2024, a year-on-year increase of 21.58% [3][5] - Profit per head for self-bred and purchased pig farming is expected to be 500.36 yuan and 345.67 yuan respectively, with significant quarter-on-quarter increases [3][5] Broiler Farming - The broiler farming sector remains at a low point, but is expected to improve due to lower farming costs and better profitability from pig farming [3][5] - The average selling price for white feather broiler parent stock is 49.9 yuan/set, down 13% year-on-year, while the average price for broiler chicks is 3.1 yuan/bird, up 36% year-on-year [3][5] Animal Health - The animal health sector is seeing a recovery in demand for vaccines, with a total of 5,151 batches of veterinary vaccines issued in Q3 2024, a year-on-year decline of 3% [3][5] Pet Food - The pet food sector is experiencing steady growth, with exports reaching 1.95 billion yuan in July-August 2024, a year-on-year increase of 26.4% [3][5] - Major pet food companies are expected to report significant profit growth, with Guibao Pet Food, Zhongchong Co., and Petty Holdings projected to achieve net profits of 160 million yuan, 86 million yuan, and 56 million yuan respectively in Q3 2024 [3][5] Investment Analysis - The report suggests focusing on the pet consumption boom and the commercialization of genetically modified crops, with key companies to watch including Muyuan Foods, Wen's Foodstuffs, Guibao Pet Food, and others in the seed and feed sectors [3][5][8]