煤炭行业2024年三季报业绩前瞻：动力煤企Q3业绩较焦煤企业整体更稳定，看好Q4需求回升带来煤企业绩改善

Investment Rating - The coal industry is rated as "Overweight" for 2024, indicating an expectation of outperforming the overall market [3][19]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the performance of thermal coal companies in Q3 is more stable compared to coking coal companies, with an optimistic outlook for Q4 demand recovery leading to improved performance for coal enterprises [3]. - Domestic coal production has decreased due to stricter safety regulations, while coal imports have maintained high growth. In August 2024, the national production of raw coal was 397 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.8%, but the cumulative production from January to August decreased by 0.3% [4][7]. - The average prices for thermal coal and coking coal at ports have declined compared to Q2 2024. The average spot price for 5500 kcal thermal coal in Q3 2024 was approximately 848 CNY/ton, down 2.33% year-on-year and 0.15% quarter-on-quarter [4][10]. Summary by Sections Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report notes a decrease in domestic coal production due to stringent safety and environmental checks, particularly in major producing regions like Shanxi and Shaanxi. However, imports have increased significantly, with a total of 38.9 million tons imported from January to September 2024, a year-on-year increase of 11.9% [4][9]. - The report indicates that while domestic production has faced challenges, the demand for coal remains relatively stable, supported by high temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere leading to increased coal usage [9]. Price Trends - The report details that the average prices for both thermal and coking coal have seen a decline in Q3 2024. The average price for thermal coal at Qinhuangdao port was 868 CNY/ton in Q3 2023, which decreased to 848 CNY/ton in Q3 2024 [10][11]. - Coking coal prices have also dropped significantly, with the average price for Shanxi's main coking coal at 1889 CNY/ton in Q3 2024, down 9.67% from Q2 2024 and 11.27% year-on-year [10][11]. Company Performance Forecast - The report forecasts that three companies will exceed performance expectations: Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry (EPS 1.61, YOY -3.57%), Guanghui Energy (EPS 11.97, YOY -45.34%), and Jinkong Coal Industry (EPS 1.25, YOY -3.36%) [4][5]. - Seventeen companies are expected to meet performance expectations, including China Shenhua (EPS 2.21, YOY -9.04%) and Yancoal Energy (EPS 1.16, YOY -44.44%) [5][12]. - One company, Shaanxi Black Cat, is projected to underperform with an EPS of -0.34, reflecting a significant decline of 158.95% [5][12].