交运2024Q3业绩前瞻：淡季油运TCE有望跑赢行业，快递盈利预期有上修空间

Investment Rating - The report gives an "Overweight" rating for the transportation industry, indicating a positive outlook compared to the overall market performance [6]. Core Insights - The shipping sector is expected to see improved profitability in Q3, particularly in container shipping, while oil shipping may experience a seasonal decline. The TCE (Time Charter Equivalent) for listed companies is anticipated to outperform the industry average [3]. - The shipbuilding sector is in an upward cycle, with tight capacity and a potential for record-high ship prices by year-end. Current shipbuilding capacity is only about 70% of the previous peak, and the average age of vessels is increasing [3]. - The aviation market is recovering, with domestic passenger traffic up 8% year-on-year in Q3, although average ticket prices have decreased by 11%. International traffic has seen a significant recovery, with a 52% increase [4]. - The express delivery sector is experiencing sustained volume growth, with a projected industry growth rate of around 20% for 2024. Price increases are expected to positively impact profitability [4]. - The highway and railway sectors are seeing a recovery in traffic volume, with steady growth in performance. Recommendations include specific companies within these sectors based on their performance metrics [4]. Summary by Sections Shipping - Container shipping profitability is expected to improve in Q3, while oil shipping may see a seasonal decline. Major companies like COSCO Shipping Energy are projected to report significant earnings [3]. - The shipbuilding sector is in a favorable cycle, with limited capacity and increasing vessel age, leading to potential record-high prices by year-end [3]. Aviation - Domestic passenger traffic increased by 8% year-on-year in Q3, while international traffic surged by 52%. However, average ticket prices fell by 11% [4]. - Companies such as China Eastern Airlines and Spring Airlines are recommended based on their recovery potential and performance metrics [6]. Express Delivery - The express delivery sector is projected to maintain a growth rate of around 20% in 2024, with price increases expected to enhance profitability [4]. - Companies like Shentong Express and Yunda Express are highlighted for their growth potential [6]. Highway and Railway - The highway sector is seeing a recovery in traffic, with recommendations for companies like China Merchants Highway and Anhui Expressway based on their performance [4]. - Railway freight volumes are exceeding expectations, benefiting from structural changes in logistics [4]. Companies like Daqin Railway are recommended for their growth potential [6].