中国9月进出口数据点评：短期扰动因素致出口放缓

Export Performance - In September, China's exports grew by 2.4% year-on-year in USD terms, down from 8.7% in August and below the expected 6.0%[1] - The manufacturing PMI new export orders fell to 47.5, marking the lowest level since February[2] - Exports of labor-intensive products, such as bags and shoes, saw double-digit declines, while steel exports accelerated from 5.6% to 11.1%[2] Import Trends - Imports in September further slowed to a growth of 0.3%, below the previous month's 0.5% and the expected 0.9%[1] - Energy and raw material imports showed significant declines, with crude oil imports down 11.1% and iron ore imports down 15.3%[4] - Automotive imports, including parts, decreased by 19.1% and 12.4%, respectively[4] Trade Balance - The trade surplus narrowed to $81.71 billion in September, lower than the expected $89.8 billion and the previous month's $91.02 billion[1] - The decline in exports and imports reflects short-term disruptions, including extreme weather and labor strikes affecting logistics[1] Future Outlook - Strong stimulus measures are expected to gradually take effect, promoting a rebalancing of domestic and external demand[1] - The recent "924" policy and signals from the central government indicate a commitment to stabilizing the economy, with anticipated fiscal support measures[1]